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For Trading October 27th Housing Numbers Missed COVID, COVID, COVID! Today’s market could have been worse, but I’m not sure how! Prices weakened overnight and then the news only got uglier as the morning progressed. Housing data took a turn for the worse and the selloff just accelerated with the DJIA hitting the low -965 around 1:45, but the bounce was nothing to write home about. We finished -650.19 (2.29%), NASDAQ -189.34 (1.64%), S&P 500 -64.42 (1.8%), the Russell -35.29 (2.15%) and the DJ Transports -275.32 (2.32%) the worst index, but not by enough to make a difference. Housing numbers (new home sales) was not only a disappointment on a month/month basis, but we also had a meaningful restatement of last month’s number from 1,011,000 to 994,000. This month we were expecting 1,022,000 and got 959,000. Tomorrow we have Durable goods, Consumer confidence, NAHB housing prices and Case-Shiller for August. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. Last week’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/4O9B_KkQ3Ao SECTORS: Earnings was the big mover today for SAP. The German digital enterprise software company said that Covid-19 has hurt business and will continue to weigh on profits through the first half of 2021. Early, the stock was trading around $118 -31 and it only got worse closing $115.02 -34.66 (23%). It sent the group lower across all markets in all locations. In other news, Dunkin Brands (DKNK) is reportedly in talks to go private again, this time with Inspire Brands, owner of Arby’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, and Jimmy Johns chains. The number being talked about is $105.00 and after hitting 105.50 in premarket it settled back to finish the day $103.00+ 14.21 (16%). Alibaba Group was one of the few mega-cap names to not get too badly hurt, possibly due to the coming IPO in Hong Kong of ANT Group, a fintech company due to raise over $35 Billion in the largest IPO in history. BABA is a major investor in ANT. New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -1.33, RCL -5.37, NCLH -1.47, AAL -.76, DAL -2.10, LUV -1.62, UAL -2.72, HA -.99, ALK -3.07 and XTN $61.04 -1.97 (3.13%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -2.45, BGA +1.32, FLO -.10, CPB -.26, CAG -.03, MDLZ -1.13, KHC -.79, CALM -.78, JJSF -1.04, SAFM -5.23, HRL -.16, SJM -.44, PPC -.55, KR +.40, and a new addition ACI +.01, and PBJ $33.75 -.48 (1.38%). BIO-PHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB -8.24, ABBV -.34, REGN +5.19, ISRG -23.71, GILD -.94, MYL -.47, TEVA -.20, VRTX -4.43, BHC -.53, INCY +.75, ICPT -.50, LABU -2.49, and IBB $135.11 -1.38 (1.01%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.79, CGC -1.19, CRON -.28, GWPH -2.87, ACB -.27, CURLF -.65, KERN -.36, and MJ $11.09 -.41 (3.57%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -5.83, GD -2.30, TXT -1.18, NOC +1.57, BWXT -1.01, TDY -13.77, RTX -2.07, and ITA $160.43 -4.41 (2.67%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.49, JWN -1.03, KSS -1.08, DDS -.10, WMT -1.36, TGT -2.26, TJX -2.02, RL -2.29, UAA -.83, LULU -2.15, TPR -.43, CPRI -.16, and a new addition GPS -.63, and XRT $53.05 -1.39 (2.55%). MEGA-CAP & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL -48.80, AMZN +5.60, AAPL -.18, FB -7.59, NFLX -.28, NVDA -18.58, TSLA -4.13, BABA -2.87, BIDU -.98, CMG -29.08, CRM -8.52, BA -7.26, CAT -5.69, DIS -4.23 and XLK $115.87 -2.57 (2.17%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.94, JPM -2.58, BAC -.43, MS -1.53, C -.64, PNC -3.31, AIG +.95, TRV -4.43, V -4.76, and XLF $24.68 -.57 (2.26%). OIL, $38.56 – 1.29, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. Last week I said, “While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions.” The stocks were lower today even though there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $29.30 -1.09 (3.59%). GOLD $1,905.70 +.50 opened LOWER and managed to rally while the market for stocks sold off. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $13,045 +75. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and 250 today @$14.19, and we still have 250 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $14.30 -.06 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading October 28th MSFT BEATS, HOG RIDES HIGHER CAT, MMM, PFE & LLY DISAPPOINT COVID, COVID, COVID! Today’s market was a split affair right from the pre-market through to the late markets. The DJIA was down on the beat on dramatically lowered expectations for CAT (a “not as bad” loss) and MMM. Both actually were even lower at the close than they were pre-market. The DJIA finished 1222.19 (.60%) while the NASDAQ was +72.44 (.64%), and S&P 500 -10.29 (.30%), the Russell -14.50 (.90%) and the biggest loser, the DJ Transports -173.21 (1.49%). Market internals were 2:1 down at the NYSE and only slightly better on the NAZ at 5:3 lower. The volume was very light, even considering the time of year. The DJIA was 23 down and 7 higher with the big winner, one we own, CRM, adding 55 DP’s and the losers GS -38, BA -37, CAT & MMM -34 DP’s. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. Last week’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/8kbt4YIVlZU SECTORS: Earnings was the big mover today for CAT, MMM, PFE and this evening MSFT. As I mentioned above, CAT was a loss, but not as bad as feared and the stock started early trading -3.76, but got weaker all day and finished $157.91 -5.29 (3.2%), MMM was a beat, but was -2.16 early but finished $161.04 -5.12 (3.1%). PFE finished $37.42 -.50 (1.3%). MSFT beat on all metrics with better numbers as well as margins. Their Chromebook numbers were up, MSFT 365 was up and both the Cloud and Gaming businesses were higher. The call hasn’t started yet but the stock had closed $213.25 +3.17 (the recent move was from $196 to 225 since late September) and the stock fell to 211, rallied up to $216, and since has sold off to the $210 area. The biggest mover by far was Harley Davidson (HOG) which came in with a major surprise and after closing $29.00 -1.07 Monday was up to $32.70 pre-market, opened $32.37 and flew up to $37.20 and finished $35.40 +6.40 (22.7%). The move was the best day in the history for the company! New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.30, RCL -1.24, NCLH -.30, AAL -.61, DAL -1.36, LUV -1.34, UAL -1.26, HA -.39, ALK -1.23 and I’ve switched to JETS as a more representative ETF for the group which finished the day $17.15 -.63 (3.54%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN +.21, BGS +.85, FLO +.05, CPB -.05, CAG -.59, MDLZ -.42, KHC +.08, CALM -.10, JJSF +.10, SAFM +2.71, HRL +.58, SJM -2.00, PPC +.,04, KR -.83, and a new addition ACI +.+.09, and PBJ $33.72 -.03 (.08%). BIO-PHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB -1.46, ABBV -1.37, REGN -5.85, ISRG +9.13, GILD -.12, MYL -.59, TEVA -.38, VRTX +5.04, BHC -.09, INCY -209, ICPT +.08, LABU +1.69, and IBB $135.87 +.76 (.56%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.27, CGC +.09, CRON +.04, GWPH -1.38, ACB -.37, CURLF +.03, KERN -.64, and MJ $11.04 -.05 (.45%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -7.55, GD -3.91, TXT -1.06, NOC -8.36, BWXT -.63, TDY -11.02, RTX -4.16, and ITA $155.39 -5.04 (3.14%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.35, JWN -.62, KSS -.85, DDS -1.52, WMT +.10, TGT -.94, TJX -1.01, RL -2.33, UAA -.26, LULU +2.21, TPR +.15, CPRI +.28, and a new addition GPS -.35, and XRT $53.84 -.21 (.40%). MEGA-CAP & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +10.70, AMZN +64.96, AAPL +1.03, FB +5.29, NFLX -2.74, NVDA +7.10, TSLA -1.95, BABA +9.33, BIDU +.85, CMG -11.73, CRM +7.40, BA -6.56, CAT -5.60, DIS -1.29 and XLK $115.78 -.09 (-.08%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -5.99, JPM -2.43, BAC -.77, MS -1.92, C 1.58, PNC -2.44, AIG -.14, TRV -2.45, V -3.27, and XLF $24.12 -.56 (2.27%). OIL, $39.57 +1.01, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. Last week I said, “While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions.” The stocks were lower today even though there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $28.75 -.55 (1.88%). GOLD $1,911.90 + 6.20 opened LOWER and managed to rally while the market for stocks sold off. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $13,685 +6.40 After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and 250 today @$14.19, and we closed out the final 250 @ $15.44. GBTC closed $15.63 +1.25 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
TL;DR: Twitter has a horrible execution history and negative surprises on the most recent earnings call, but company has real long term value that has yet to be unlocked. The bet here is that TWTR has run up based on pin action from SNAP, but fundamentals and peer comparison cloud the picture. I read this post calling for a short on Twitter and it became a bit of a WSB ear worm. I generally agreed with OP's assessment, but he was a bit short on DD and most of my thoughts are based on biases against the company's horrible execution/monetization history and a general disdain for Jack Dorsey wanting to move to Africa for a year rather than focusing on the TWO companies that have made him a billionaire. I thought about it, researched some short term puts (high premium as expected given recent run up into all time high today, earnings Thursday) and basically ATM puts are running $2.76 for $51's expiring Friday or $3.36 if I want to give myself the extra week (ELECTION MADNESS!) for an extra swing at the payoff. My initial thought is that Twitter has run up with SNAP and PINS after SNAP crushed earnings. I had started to look at PINS for an earnings play but didn't get to it before SNAP sent them all (and FB) off to the races. With that said, Twitter has a history of disappointing and I'm not aware of anything they've done recently to better monetize the site. I also haven't done any DD on them in forever after getting stuck long a few times and having to wait a quarter or so twice for what should have been a short term trade. So, thanks to OP Justaryns, here's some follow on DD. Now I'm more conflicted. Financials. Strong balance sheet. Company had $7.8 Billion cash on hand end of June, adding $1 Billion of that during the first six (crash/shutdown) months of the year. Only $831 Million of current liabilities and total debt is $4.1 Billion. Market Cap is less than 4x book value. No issues here. Income statement is a bit more hokey. They took a major charge last quarter for a "non-cash tax deferred asset". That messed up a slow but steady growing trendline. How much so? Check the CNBC graphic: 2Q: Whoops Also during the last quarter, Twitter had a massive hack where some moron tried to use the accounts of famous people to try and sell (Edit; The currency that we doth not speak its name). No word on which autist here did that. The problems continued into the last few weeks, when Twitter had a massive outage that the President blamed cited the Babylon Bee as Biden protection. That's more of a reminder that headline and political risk remains in all communication services stocks, and tomorrow we'll get a better reminder as the CEO's of Twitter, Facebook, and Microsoft testify before a Congress that hates them more than their own voters. So Twitter has execution problems, political risk, and a CEO that is still trying to decide what he wants to be when he grows up. Yet it's had a massive run up as pin action from SNAP. Does it have further room to run? Chart comparisons suggest it could. Relative Performance of SNAP, PINS, TWTR, and FB This is where I get heartburn on the short. Over the past year, PINS and SNAP have had over a 150% return. FB, much more established and with a market cap 20 times that of Twitter, has still given a respectable 46% return. Twitter is up 73%, which is a lot...until you compare it to peers like SNAP and PINS. Further, analysts are sour on Twitter, with 32 of 41 giving hold or underperform ratings, and a stock price 20% below current prices. I tend to consider them a contra-indicator, in that they move after sentiment does, usually not before. CNBC analyst summary So, I'm torn. If Dorsey can demonstrate he has finally decided to execute a business plan and fix the recurring technical/security issues, there's real value to unlock here. Short term....I'm probably willing to take a gamble that he hasn't, and buy a few puts. What say y'all? Related Positions: 6 FB 275 Nov 20 calls. No positions yet on TWTR.
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
I keep hearing "Deflation before massive inflation"
So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome. It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
Commodities and things people use every day become expensive,
Luxury goods fall in value.
Inflation wipes out all savings, there is often a rush to spend money while it has value. "Bank runs" and "Bank Bail in's" where the bank will limit your withdraws to prop up the bank temporarily. Sure here the FDIC may insure it, but its nothing if your money is losing value by the hour and it takes months to get it actually into your hands. And many countries have issues with a person holding cash..."You're automatically a drug dealer! >your money is now drug money! >Asset forfeiture" ...I cant count how many times this happens.
People yell " physical gold and silver!" ... yeah, those do hold value well, however the gov does tax that at 26-30% when sold, and will often ban its use in dire times. ....huge grey / pirate area.
Mining stock is the same in the tax range, and nearly anything you "resell", imposed taxes and royalties can be added leaving you high and dry.
Precious metal holdings have been banned in the past, even here in the USA...aka Government confiscation.
Nationalization of Precious metals mines have happened.
Edit: I now realize there are many ways stocks can play out.
Real Estate will raise in value hugely, However so will the taxes, longer contracts at fixed rates benefits the lendee.
Things that you use, if you can stock or invest in it.
-I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
-Rotating food stock
-Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
Things that directly pay you back or are insurance. Saving money is making money.
-Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
A cooking gadget vs eating out.
Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
Things that last and can be resold on the street if need be. This list can be huge, you have to balance it with liquidity, what you use but can also sell before it goes bad / fails.
Honestly and unpopularly, Things that can avoid tax when the price inflates out of control and you wish to sell. The numbers can be so distorted in both price and taxing of income. Eggs for instance, in many countries from Weimar Republic of Germany to Venezuela, increased 15,000%+, So that $15,000 egg / $150,000 dozen that you sold from your chickens gets taxed in the highest tax bracket? (which can go into the 90% range if rules aren't changed for the massive inflation) Taxes usually try raising during this and many companies flee the country, add robots / machines, or downsize as the result of more taxes making work and jobs even more of an issue. .. honestly history shows the whole thing being a cluster-duck in so many ways. Alternative currencies pop up, actual trades happen and go unreported, crime even shifts when things get too bad, again with Venezuela, I read that criminals were moving to other countries because the people were too poor to even make anything robbing! You can also have a business where you write off so many things that you would use anyways. The numbers get... err... odd, play the game.
It is usually around 10 years of chaos before things start "stabilizing." and even then, so much damage has occured.
This is a serious thing that has happened to once prosperous people / civilizations in the past...don't think you're exempt, especially when the numbers are at historical limits in many countries. Invest in yourself and what you use regularly.
Bitcoin is due to go up if you follow S2F - Let's get ready to rumble!
BTC historical Stock to Flow chart According to Stock to Flow, it is time for BTC to makes some moves up. It's been a fairly dependable bellwether for Bitcoins movement, whether up or down. As you can see from the above chart, it looks to be the season to be jolly for longs is upon us. Of course, this could go sideways still for another couple months, but with every passing day the the magnet drawing BTC to the northern reaches gets ever stronger. Here is a more recent range for the Stock to Flow model: Stock to Flow chart from June 2016 to January 2020 Comparing where we are now to the lead up to the bull run starting in 2016 - we are on the cusp of a long and fruitful bull season! Now of course, Bitcoin could decide on a new path and break from precedent. But, why should it? What do you think? I for one do believe that history will repeat once again, but of course: nothing is 100% Fingers crossed that this model continues to be correct!
What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots
OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar. Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone. It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c. As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon. TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome. DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
For someone not familiar with Bitcoin, the first question that comes to mind is, "What is Bitcoin?" And another common question that is often asked relates to the Bitcoin price. It started out a under 10 cents per Bitcoin upon its introduction in early 2009. It has risen steadily since and has hovered around $4000 per Bitcoin recently. So regarding Bitcoin value or the Bitcoin rate this is a most remarkable appreciation of value and has created many, many millionaires over the last eight years. The Bitcoin market is worldwide and the citizens of China and Japan have been particularly active in its purchase along with other Asian countries. However, recently in Bitcoin news the Chinese government has tried to suppress its activity in that country. That action drove the value of Bitcoin down for a short time but it soon surged back and is now close to its previous value. The Bitcoin history chart is very interesting. Its creator was an anonymous group of brilliant mathematicians (using the pseudonym Satoski Nakamoto) who designed it in 2008 to be "virtual gold" and released the first Bitcoin software in early 2009 during the height of the USA economic crisis. They knew that to have lasting value, it like gold had to have a finite supply. So in creating it they capped the supply at 21 million Bitcoin. Bitcoin mining refers to the process by which new Bitcoin is created. With conventional currency, government decides when and where to print and distribute it. With Bitcoin, "miners" use special software to solve complex mathematical problems and are issued a certain number of Bitcoin in return. A question that then arises is, is Bitcoin mining worth it. The answer is NO for the average person. It takes very sophisticated knowledge and a powerful computer system and this combination of factors makes it unattainable for the masses. This applies even more to bitcoin mining 2017 than in past years. Many wonder, who accepts Bitcoin? This question gets asked in various ways, what are stores that accept bitcoin, what are websites that accept bitcoins, what are some retailers that accept bitcoin, what are some places that accept bitcoin and where can I spend bitcoin. More and more companies are beginning to see the value of accepting cryptocurrencies as a valid payment option. Some major companies that do are DISH network, Microsoft, Expedia, Shopify stores, Newegg, Payza, 2Pay4You, and others.Two major holdouts at this time are Walmart and Amazon. Ethereum is the strongest rival to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market and many wonder at the question of Bitcoin vs Ethereum. Ethereum was created in mid-2015 and has gained some popularity but still ranks far behind Bitcoin in usage, acceptance and value. A question that often comes up often relates to Bitcoin scam. This author has a friend who made a purchase from a company that promised 1-2% growth per day. The company website listed no contact information and after a couple months the website simply vanished one day and my friend lost all the money he had invested which was several thousand dollars. One has to know how to buy Bitcoins, how to purchase Bitcoin or how to buy Bitcoin with credit card in order to get started. Coinbase is a very popular site to do this. Their fee is 3.75% and the buying limit is $10,000 per day. This would probably be the easiest way to buy bitcoins. Others would like to buy Bitcoin with debit card. Coinbase also provides this service and has clear step by step instructions on how to proceed with either your debit or credit card. There are those who would like to buy Bitcoin instantly. This can be done at Paxful, Inc. and can be done through W. Union or any credit/debit card. Other common questions that come up are what is the best way to buy Bitcoins, the best way to get bitcoins or where to buy bitcoins online. The easiest way is probably to purchase it through a digital asset exchange like the previously mentioned Coinbase. Opening an account with them is painless and once you link your bank account with them you can buy and sell Bitcoin quite easily. This is quite likely also the best place to buy Bitcoins. One must know what a Bitcoin wallet is and how to use it. It is simply the Bitcoin equivalent of a bank account. It allows you to receive Bitcoins, store them and send them to others. What it does is store a collection of Bitcoin privacy keys. Typically it is encrypted with a password or otherwise protected from unauthorized access. There are several types of digital wallets to choose from. A web wallet allows you to send, receive and store Bitcoin though your web browser. Another type is a desktop wallet and here the wallet software is stored directly on your computer. There are also mobile wallets which are designed for use by a mobile device. A question that occasionally comes up is that of Bitcoin stock or how to buy Bitcoin stock. By far the most common way to proceed in this area is to buy Bitcoin directly and not its stock. There is one entity called Bitcoin Investment trust which is an investment fund that is designed to track the market flow of Bitcoin. Some analysts however are calling this a risky way to become involved in this marketplace. The Bitcoin exchange rate USD is a closely watched benchmark both on a daily basis and long term over the last 8 years since its introduction to the world's financial marketplace. A popular company to receive the most current rate in Bitcoin valuation is XE. They show Bitcoin to USD valuation and also the complete Bitcoin price chart, the Bitcoin value chart and the Bitcoin to USD chart. If you ask, "How much is one Bitcoin?" you will always know from their continuously updated charts. Similar questions that come up in this area relate to the bitcoin rate history, the bitcoin price chart live, the bitcoin to dollar exchange rate, the bitcoin dollar chart and the bitcoin 5 year chart. The previously mentioned website, xe, is also a good source for answers to these questions. Regarding Bitcoin cash, ie. to get USD from selling Bitcoin, Bitwol is one company that enables you to do this. WikiHow is another company that will take you through this process.
Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right? Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page. Expenses Overview Auto Expenses Food Expenses Home Expenses Utility Expenses Tax Expenses Healthcare Expenses Entertainment Expenses Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700. With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement. Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses. Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense. Investments: Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Traditional IRA: $299,000 -> $348,000
Roth IRA: $14,500 -> $18,150
Brokerage: $18,400 -> $22,900
Total Rollup: $331,800 -> $389,100. ~17% return
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin) HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA. $9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account. Finances Going Forward I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age. I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings. My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000. The Living Part: There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!" Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep. I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice. I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours. I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page. I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows. And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast. Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park. I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.) I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me. Personal History Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed. But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year. I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000. Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts. Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out. TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
Hope everyone is having a good ass day today. This might be long. Please upvote so others are more likely to see in their feeds. I have really wanted to start sharing my other forms of trading with you guys. I trade forex and did well this week betting on usd strength against the safe haven currency Japanese yen. I’m also invested at $2,200 into a crypto currency called cindicator. I have 392,197 shares. Trying to get to 700,000 for access to their highest tier of trading indicators. I’ve followed this company for a long ass time and their product is great. If the price gets back to its high of $0.37, it’s a 6,959% profit for me. I’m expecting it to hit AT LEAST a dollar during this next bull run due to cnd/btc charts. Crypto currencies are similar to pennystocks in their volatility. I also have very good evidence that bitcoin is about to start moving up very rapidly. The halving event that pushed it up to $20,000 just happened again two weeks ago. I and probably everyone else are expecting $100,000 bitcoin by October 2021 due to bitcoin stock to flow model. That indicator was designed by some billion dollar hedge fund manager and its accuracy is something I’ve never seen before. Please read the bottom half where it explains how that indicator works. Truly impressive. I’m also learning how to trade SPY options, and I just made my first winning trade after a week of losing by buying SPY 298c 5/29 So my question is, are you interested in learning other forms of trading? By order of difficulty, we’d start with crypto currency. Mainly bitcoin and a handful of others. It’s pretty straightforward until you get into cold storage. Then forex which is complicated, and options further down the line after I understand them fully. Or if the consensus is forex or options, we’ll start there. My main goal in Reddit is to make you guys better traders/ investors. One of my next personal goals is to get my series 7 and 65 licenses and do this shit professionally. I’ve done the math, and if my average return in forex at ~10% per month stays consistent, managing $5,000,000 in client money and charging 20% would mean I make $80,000 a month. I’m currently building my trading history on Oanda as the first step in this process. So if you start seeing me in suits and ties on my streams, you’ll know what’s up. Let me know if you’re interested. I’m not sure how I would do it. Maybe just include [BTC] in my headlines about crypto currency stuff when I post so that it’s easy to skim over for those not interested. I don’t want to start an isolated subreddit or anything like that.
I'm thinking about buying SILVER VIPER MINERALS (VIPRF). I haven't picked a price yet as I need to see it rise above the 18 day moving average line. See the chart;SMA(18);COTLC;STOSL(14,3);SRSI(14,20);MFI(14,100);SMACD(12,30,18);SMA(50)&sym=VIPRF&grid=1&height=375&studyheight=100) and see my order My last silver pick, DEFIANCE SILVER (DNCVF) which I sold a day or two ago resulted in a profit of 59.724% and held it for 27 days. I am still waiting for Bitcoin to come down to $9,000 or $8,500 as you can see on the daily and monthly charts it is trading at a top. I still think silver will come down as the charts suggest along with Bitcoin. To rationalize this to fundamental traders who are not technical traders I think the reason will be that Trump will get re-elected and will make policies or actions that will comfort those who are holding dollars but that will be a temporary thing and up again we will go in prices. See the silver daily and monthly charts. Trading is about patients and control not about how active you are. Be sure to check out my Youtube channel Twitter Trading History Newsletter archives are located at http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/list/activitynotices/ Main Page
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first. https://preview.redd.it/uaryqg421cf51.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=049a3413ff1392c1f579e84e9a14cac76959e12c For the first time in history, the world gold price has topped $2,000 an ounce. Quantitative easing in major countries has brought astronomical amounts into the financial markets. In addition, Nasdaq is also setting a new high in anticipation of further economic stimulus agreements in the US this week. Financial experts cite the followings for the main causes of the recent gold rally. 👉 First, experts analyze this intensification of the gold rally was caused by the stuttered US dollar rebound and the lowered US Treasury yield. In particular, as the US government's discussion on further economic stimulus measures to alleviate the global economic damage caused by COVID-19 from Wuhan, China is expected to come to an agreement this week, many speculate that this will lead to a drop in dollar value. Although the White House, Republicans, and Democrats have yet to narrow their views on additional stimulus measures prolonging the negotiation, it is very likely that the release of more dollars in the market, in the sense that everyone agrees on the need for additional stimulus, will relatively increase the value of gold. 👉 Second, some say that “the central banks in many countries will continue to buy gold to promote gold prices” referring to cases where central banks' buying of gold increased their gold prices during the 2009 global financial crisis.
"How high will the gold price go❓ "
Most experts believe that the gold price is still far from its limit. Especially, the Goldman Sachs Group is looking at $2,300 an ounce, Bank of America from $2,500 an ounce to up to $3,000 an ounce, and RBC Capital Market $3,000 an ounce. https://preview.redd.it/vdk9z7251cf51.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=057fc3749ebb69d881d5c0f1dbb35e8d075c7b89 The price of Bitcoin, also known as a safe digital asset, also remains in the $11,100 to $11,300 range ever since it recently broke the highest point of $12,000. https://preview.redd.it/98v29w551cf51.png?width=2272&format=png&auto=webp&s=50b3957a0cffaa121d49c38e083223780841a3a9 Bitcoin, the No. 1 market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, has a market capitalization of approximately 200 billion USD as of August 5, 2020. This is more than the global stock valuations of Intel and Coca-Cola. https://preview.redd.it/z6cxe1y51cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e74da23155fd6a4b9fe2521c61cbf4bd8bd9b94 A cryptocurrency media outlet, CoinDesk recently said that "Bitcoin recently hit a market high of $11,480, but there was a sign of buyer (buying force) fatigue in the technology chart. If the price falls below $11,000, it could retreat back to, before resistance now support, $10,500 (the highest point in February). However, if Bitcoin continues to settle above $11,400 on the time chart, it is highly likely that the rally will go above the latest high beyond $12,000". I believe now that the value of gold, a famous safe asset, is the highest ever as the U.S. government has tentatively agreed to invest an additional $1 trillion in economic stimulus, the Bitcoin is also preparing to its rally again. I also think that since it is the post-halving period with the good news waiting in line including the Ethereum 2.0, we have enough momentum to rally more than $20,000 by the end of the year.
💡 "Nothing is permanent in this wicked world - not even our troubles." - Charlie Chaplin
All financial assets, including Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, cannot be bullish forever. In the long run, they can gradually rise by stepping up the lowest price point, but there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. MCS traders can enjoy a bull market while preparing for a bear market on the one hand. https://preview.redd.it/864543571cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cc17316075758ca10523a6124204ca57351d737 On UPbit and Bithumb, the major cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea, one can profit in a bull market, but it is very difficult to realize profits in a bear market, nless you are a master of flipping,. As a result, many cryptocurrency traders will turn their attention to cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges in bear markets. After a successful launch of the Bitcoin perpetual contract product, the trading market on MCS is vigorously moving. The perpetual contract, one of Bitcoin derivatives, can short sell (betting on price drop) in the bear market, making it easy to profit even if the full-fledged bear market starts. In addition, even in today's bull market, you can take long positions (betting on rising prices), and you can use leverage to amplify your investment beyond the assets managed you own, enabling very effective Bitcoin trading. *If you use leverage, the risk is significantly higher, so please be cautious of the risk and trade safely. I hope this post helped you to understand the pros and cons of Bitcoin perpetual contract better, and I really wish that you realize your financial freedom on MCS, a cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform!! I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post. Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS. Thank you. MCS Website:https://mycoinstory.com/ MCS Official Twitter (EN):https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs MCS Official Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official MCS Telegram Chat (EN):https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
Why will the switching to TkeyNet take place this year, and not later, as planned?
Let’s look at the project history. The TKEY concept dates back to October 2017, and it was in the fourth quarter of 2017 that the distributed infrastructure concept was approved. In early 2018, the formation of the TkeyNet architecture began. To make the whole course of events clear, we highlighted the main points and commented on them: The projected development period for TkeyNet is 2.5–3 years.
This forecast was made in 2018 when the development of TkeyNet began.
The course of events that was part of our strategy
Core 1.0 launch and exchange The company planned to launch a Protocol based on Core 1.0 and conduct a subsequent listing of the asset on the exchange in late 2018-in the first half of 2019. Depending on the completion of work on Core 1.0. Why launch Core 1.0? There is a fixed practice in the market when a project starts on a ready-made blockchain, and then switches to its own, for example, EOS. This project was launched based on the Ethereum blockchain, and later the transition to its Protocol was made. Our main task was to launch a Protocol with non-standard technical solutions for the market and enter the auction to expand the project audience and obtain liquidity for the asset. With an increase in the asset price, the company would be able to increase its financial resources and reinvest them in the development of the project. Thus, the launch of a blockchain-based on Core 1.0 fully met these tasks.
In Core 1.0, new transaction models introduced and multi-blockchain support implemented. The first version of the Protocol supported the inclusion of 10 separate chains. The mechanics allowed you to change the number of parallel chains in the blockchain. To increase throughput, the team implemented PostgreSQL support, instead of the typical key-value database that is present in most cryptocurrencies.
Switching to Core 2.0 during trading and then switching to TkeyNet Next, the plan was to upgrade the network to Core 2.0 and continuously modify it. The modification means the gradual implementation of functionality and standards from TkeyNet so that it is easy to make the transition from Core 2.0 to the new TkeyNet Protocol during trading on the exchange. https://preview.redd.it/zcf5vnsgg2f51.png?width=1191&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5d5e41551ccc95f8a8a401f8fd2d081f1068939 In 2019, a Core 1.0 — based system launched. The year was simultaneously busy: the first presentation of TkeyNet at APA-2019, presence at IFC-2019, work on draft laws, and at the same time, the year was quite difficult for our company, which affected the timing shifts for products and all project plans in General. The listing did not take place. Reasons for switching to TkeyNet There is a silver lining. In the period from April to May, there was positive news from developers: work on TkeyNet will be completed much earlier than planned. By the end of June, we were preparing to launch a test network based on TkeyNet, to start the final testing of all functions.
On June 22, 2020, the core 1.0 network suspended. For more information,see the link.
Shortly, we will be able to switch to TkeyNet and list the TKEY asset to crypto exchange.
Upon completion of the launch of TkeyNet, the official date of listing of TKEY on the trading platform will publish at the link:tkeycoin.com/start/;
What is TkeyNet?
We have already talked about TkeyNet in the previous article: TkeyNet-release date, a brief analysis of the system, further plans, gave examples of how the use of technology, told what products can be created based on TkeyNet, all this covered in General terms. https://preview.redd.it/olp8lviig2f51.png?width=7418&format=png&auto=webp&s=9403b97e8bd2080fb8678530dbb418053db317c3 In this publication, we share some theses so that you will gradually develop an objective picture of the new TkeyNet system and its capabilities, which many of you will be able to apply in the future in business or everyday life. From the very beginning of development, — TkeyNet was intended to improve the existing financial system, not to replace it. From a technical point of view, the system and its functionality entirely based on blockchain technology. However, this is not a classic variation, as, for example, with bitcoin, but the new implementation of It — more secure, more suitable for global use, more perfect. In simple words, our developers took the best from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and other market leaders, combined their pros, eliminated their cons, and modified existing solutions on the market, resulting in new technology with new features. For the user, TkeyNet is a fast payment network that allows you to store, use, and move various assets in the payment network, such as currencies, shares, real estate, and precious metals, etc. Businesses will be able to legally conduct international transfers in seconds and significantly save on transactions. For developers and startups, this means best practices, infrastructure, liquidity, and access to ready-made solutions that can complete in their products. Among competitors, TkeyNet is much faster than its predecessors, more profitable, and cheaper in terms of transactions. For businesses and financial institutions, it is an infrastructure that will significantly improve existing financial processes, from payment routing to multi-level exchange and clearing operations. If we compare the giants of the financial industry-banks, and the new paradigm — distributed payment systems, we will notice a significant difference. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies estimated at ≈340 billion US dollars and the capitalization of 10 world banks is 2 trillion dollars. A significant difference, don’t you agree? http://www.outsourcingportal.eu/en/bitcoin-would-rank-as-8th-largest-bank-globally-with-169-billion-in-market-capitalization You can’t argue with the numbers, and we must understand that banks remain vital objects of the financial system. Banks help us send funds within the country and abroad, and provide a lot of services, such as loans, deposits, and a lot of other services. Anyway, using cryptocurrency, users actively exchange it for Fiat currencies to pay for any formed needs. Therefore, TkeyNet will serve as a bridge between fiat and digital currencies, providing its users with best practices and tools through which we will all have access to various digital and cash at any time and anywhere in the world. The Asian Parliamentary Assembly actively raised the issue of trust and the development of financial products in underdeveloped countries. The problem in such countries is total state control of property registers. Citizens prefer to dispose of their funds in informal settings because they do not consider state systems reliable.
According to the World Bank alone, about 1.7–1.8 billion people do not have accounts in any financial institution, and about 47% of them located in developing countries. The problem of interaction between a person and a financial institution consists of three main reasons: poverty, trust issues, and geographical difficulties. With systems such as TkeyNet, it is possible to connect people and financial institutions with a single source of trust. With the use of such systems, a person does not need anything other than access to the Internet. https://www.statista.com/chart/18497/countries-with-the-highest-share-of-adults-without-a-bank-account-in-2017/
The investments that bring us all together
On the other hand, the audience of the TKEY project is quite diverse: our investors represent a variety of professions, a variety of cities, and a variety of age groups. However, one thing, nevertheless, unites us all — this thing is an investment. And therefore, some of the users may not be interested in technical details or the difference between 1.0, 2.0, or TkeyNet. But at least the thesis, the main message, must be understood by absolutely everyone.
The more popular the company’s products are on the market, the stronger it is and the development. Due to the reliability of the company, the prices of its assets grow.
From 22 to 24 July, the test network TkeyNet was successfully launched. Our team is currently actively testing the entire network and conducting a security audit. Developers are testing the network with different scenarios: security, reliability of the full system, as well as individual modules and functions. Given the different number of similar-looking formulations, but at the same time completely different from each other, some users wondered what is the difference between such concepts: Mainnet, Testnet, and TkeyNet. Testnet should consider as a demonstration network for testing, testing concepts, new features, experiments, and debugging without the risk of losing any data. Testnet is a polygon for the development team that used to improve the system and introduce new features. Mainnet (Main Network) this is a complete product, ready to use. TkeyNet is the name of the infrastructure, the entire system that we are developing, and Testnet and Mainnet are technical concepts within this system. After testing the system is complete, TkeyNet will launch. We will issue instructions on how to upgrade to the new Protocol and new software, respectively.
Testing takes place without any excesses, and the launch of TkeyNet is just around the corner.
Thank you for being with us! Follow the project news to stay up to date. If you missed the latest news, you read the notification on the site: https://tkeycoin.com/en/news/.
For Trading JULY 15th JPM Earnings a Beat But Loan Loss Grows 875% NASDAQ Still Weaker MODERNA Publishes Results Today’s market got off to a soft start and after an initial dip it started up. The exception was the NASDAQ. I went home with a few SMH puts and as that ETF fell quickly, I took a nice gain only to see it reverse and move higher with the rest of the markets. The early excitement with the DJIA futures quickly evaporated and we didn’t do much from 11:00 – 1:00 but then started higher and after a new high of day, +450 or so, we sold off from 3:00 to 3:30 before another rally to new high of day and a close +556.79 (2.13%), NASDAQ +97.74 (.94%), S&P 500 +42.30 (1.34%), the Russell +24.69 (1.76%) and the DJ Transports +159.29 (1.71%). Market internals were about as expected for an up day with the NYSE 2:1 and NASDAQ 5:3 after its lower open and rally. Volume was down slightly lower than yesterday. The DJIA showed all 30 names up with the biggest winner UNH +60DP’s (earning tomorrow morning), HD +55, AAPL and CAT +43, MCD +39, and TRV, MCD, and V all adding 30 DP’s. The strongest sectors were energy, industrials, health care and materials. Weaker were consumer discretionary and financials. The U.S. Dollar continued weak and commodities were generally higher. Economic numbers, CPI was released this morning and came in at + .6% for CPI, up from an expected .5%, and Core CPI was + .2% vs .1% expected. This meant that the numbers showed benign consume inflation, although anyone who shops in a grocery store knows that’s not the case! Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/PcshhlWfjIc SECTORS: JP Morgan (JPM) reported earnings that were a beat on both earnings and revenues, but after the numbers moved the stock up in early extended trading, the market started looking at the fact that JPM increased its Loan Loss provisions increased from $1.2billion to a monstrous $10.5billion, an 875% increase. The stock had traded as high as $102.50 early, a level that it never achieved in the official market session. The stock finished $98.21 +.56 (.57%). Also reporting were WFC with a loss and was $24.25 -1.16 (4.57%), C also a disappointment finishing $50.15 -2.05 (3.93%), TRV a loss but closed $118.55 +4.31 (3.77%). Delta (DAL) reported their biggest loss in history and revenues back at 1980’s levels. It fell to 26.11 -.71 (2.65%). The January high was $62.48. On the good news side, Moderna (MRNA) reported that their trial of its Covid-19 vaccine produced twice the therapeutic response of patients that had actually recovered from the disease. The stock, a star since the government gave them a grant to help with the development of the vaccine has moved from a low around $18.00 to $87.00 in May had finished the day $75.04 +3.26 (4.54%) ran up to a new high of $89.76 and is currently trading $86.38 + 11.34 or an additional 12%. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.16, BGS +.80, FLO +.32, CPB +.83, CAG +1.13, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +1.01, CALM +.15, JJSF +2.19, SAFM +1.24, HRL +1.03, SJM +2.51, and PBJ $16.30 +.06 (.37%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.75, ABBV +2.89, REGN +27.12, ISRG +15.21, GILD -.18, MYL +.37, TEVA +.13, VRTX +9.01, BHC +.33, INCY +2.46, ICPT +.27, LABU +6.31, and IBB $116.00 +4.75 (3.46%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.17, CGC +.15, CRON +.13, GWPH +6.31, ACB -.18, CURLF -.07, KERN -.16, and MJ $13.34 +.14 (1.79%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.55, GD +.54, TXT +.78, NOC +4.15, BWXT -.42, TDY +7.52, RTX +2.04, and ITA $159.61 +2.56 (1.63%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +.05, KSS +.78, DDS +.75, WMT +2.84, TGT +1.77, TJX +.19, RL +2.27, UAA +.08, LULU +5.85, TPR +.10, CPRI +.09, and XRT $43.96 +.86 (2.00%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +15.77, AMZ -16.68, AAPL +8.39, FB +1.85, NFLX -4.00, NVDA +15.11, TSLA +66.84, BABA -1.19, BIDU -1.54, CMG +21.08, CAT +7.74, BA +7.51, DIS +4.88, and XLK $107.56 +1.72 (1.63%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.37, JPM +1.45, BAC +.23, MS +.88, C -1.23, PNC +.32, AIG +1.28, TRV +7.13, AXP +2.89, V +5.48, and XLF $23.95 +.39 (1.66%). OIL, $40.29 +19. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.00 +1.65 (4.67%). GOLD $1,813.40 -.70. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.28 +.16. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.59 +.20. BITCOIN: closed $9,310 + 40. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.73 + .13 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Murmurs of the Sea | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2020
Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world. -Albert Camus, The Plague This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254 Secured physical gold – $19 211 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106 Bitcoin – $115 330 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 303 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 492 Total portfolio value: $1 566 946 (-$236 479 or -13.1%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 40.6% (4.4% under) Global shares – 22.3% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.6% (2.4% under) Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 10.4% Total bonds – 15.2% (0.2% over) Gold – 8.8% Bitcoin – 7.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month saw an extremely rapid collapse in market prices for a broad range of assets across the world, driven by the acceleration of the Coronavirus pandemic. Broad and simultaneous market falls have resulted in the single largest monthly fall in portfolio value to date of around $236 000. This represents a fall of 13 per cent across the month, and an overall reduction of more the 16 per cent since the portfolio peak of January. [Chart] The monthly fall is over three times more severe than any other fall experienced to date on the journey. Sharpest losses have occurred in Australian equities, however, international shares and bonds have also fallen. A substantial fall in the Australia dollar has provided some buffer to international equity losses - limiting these to around 8 per cent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 23 per cent. In short, in the period of acute market adjustment - as often occurs - the benefits of diversification have been temporarily muted. [Chart] The last monthly update reported results of some initial simplified modelling on the impact of a hypothetical large fall in equity markets on the portfolio. Currently, the actual asset price falls look to register in between the normal 'bear market', and the more extreme 'Global Financial Crisis Mark II' scenarios modelled. Absent, at least for the immediate phase, is a significant diversification offset - outside of a small (4 per cent) increase in the value of gold. The continued sharp equity market losses have left the portfolio below its target Australian equity weighting, so contributions this month have been made to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This coming month will see quarterly distributions paid for the A200, VGS and VAS exchange traded funds - totalling around $2700 - meaning a further small opportunity to reinvest following sizeable market falls. Reviewing the evidence on the history of stock market falls Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happen, and then there are weeks in which decades happen. This month has been four such weeks in a row, from initial market responses to the coronavirus pandemic, to unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses aimed at lessening the impact. Given this, it would be foolish to rule out the potential for other extreme steps that governments have undertaken on multiple occasions before. These could include underwriting of banks and other debt liabilities, effective nationalisation or rescues of critical industries or providers, or even temporary closure of some financial or equity markets. There is a strong appeal for comforting narratives in this highly fluid investment environment, including concepts such as buying while distress selling appears to be occurring, or delaying investing until issues become 'more clear'. Nobody can guarantee that investments made now will not be made into cruel short-lived bear market rallies, and no formulas exist that will safely and certainly minimise either further losses, or opportunities forgone. Much financial independence focused advice in the early stages of recent market falls focused on investment commonplaces, with a strong flavour of enthusiasm at the potential for 'buying the dip'. Yet such commonly repeated truths turn out to be imperfect and conditional in practice. One of the most influential studies of a large sample of historical market falls turns out to provide mixed evidence that buying following a fall reliably pays off. This study (pdf) examines 101 stock market declines across four centuries of data, and finds that:
Large falls can lead to strong rebounds - After large falls of up to 50 per cent, the probability of a large rebound is higher.
Future returns after large market falls are generally positive - Returns following such a severe crash are systematically higher than otherwise.
Smaller market falls, however, may accurately signal poor future returns - Smaller declines (10-20 per cent) are more likely to be followed by further declines, although the strength of the relationship is weaker and less consistent.
Even these findings should be viewed as simply indicative. Each crisis and economic phase has its unique character, usually only discernible in retrospect. History, in these cases, should inform around the potential outlines of events that can be considered possible. As the saying goes, risk is what remains after you believe you have thought of everything. Position fixing - alternative perspectives of progress In challenging times it can help to keep a steady view of progress from a range of perspectives. Extreme market volatility and large falls can be disquieting for both recent investors and those closer to the end of the journey. One perspective on what has occurred is that the portfolio has effectively been pushed backwards in time. That is, the portfolio now sits at levels it last occupied in April 2019. Even this perspective has some benefit, highlighting that by this metric all that has been lost is the strong forward progress made in a relatively short time. Yet each perspective can hide and distort key underlying truths. As an example, while the overall portfolio is currently valued at around the same dollar value as a year ago, it is not the same portfolio. Through new purchases and reinvestments in this period, many more actual securities (mostly units in ETFs) have been purchased. The chart below sets out the growth in total units held from January 2019 to this month, across the three major exchange trade funds holdings in the portfolio. [Chart] From this it can be seen that the number of securities held - effectively, individual claims on the future earnings of the firms in these indexes - has more than doubled over the past fifteen months. Through this perspective, the accumulation of valuable assets shows a far more constant path. Though this can help illuminate progress, as a measure it also has limitations. The realities of falls in market values cannot be elided by such devices, and some proportion of those market falls represent initial reassessments of the likely course of future earnings, and therefore the fundamental value of each of those ETF units. With significant uncertainty over the course of global lock-downs, trade and growth, the basis of these reassessments may provide accurate, or not. For anyone to discount all of these reassessments as wholly the temporary result of irrational panic is to show a remarkable confidence in one's own analytical capacities. Similarly, it would be equally wrong to extrapolate from market falls to a permanent constraining of the impulse of humanity to innovate, adjust to changed conditions, seek out opportunities and serve others for profit. Lines of position - Trends in expenditure A further longer-term perspective regularly reviewed is monthly expenses compared to average distributions. Monthly expenditure continues to be below average, and is likely to fall further next month as a natural result of a virus-induced reduction of shopping trips, events and outings. [Chart] As occurred last month, as a function some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure, a downward slope in distributions continues. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 71.9% 97.7% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 87.7% 119.2% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 70.2% 95.5% Summary This month has been one of the most surprising and volatile of the entire journey, with significant daily movements in portfolio value and historic market developments. There has been more to watch and observe than at any time in living memory. The dominant sensation has been that of travelling backwards through time, and revisiting a stage of the journey already passed. The progress of the last few months has actually been so rapid, that this backwards travel has felt less like a set back, but rather more like a temporary revisitation of days past. It is unclear how temporary a revisitation current conditions will enforce, or exactly how this will affect the rest of the journey. In early January I estimated that if equity market fell by 33 per cent through early 2020 with no offsetting gains in other portfolio elements, this could push out the achievement of the target to January 2023. Even so, experiencing these markets and with more volatility likely, I don't feel there is much value in seeking to rapidly recalculate the path from here, or immediately alter the targeted timeframe. Moving past the portfolio target from here in around a year looks almost impossibly challenging, but time exists to allow this fact to settle. Too many other, more important, human and historical events are still playing out. In such times, taking diverse perspectives on the same facts is important. This Next Life recently produced this interesting meditation on the future of FIRE during this phase of economic hardship. In addition, the Animal Spirits podcast also provided a thoughtful perspective on current market falls compared to 2008, as does this article by Early Retirement Now. Such analysis, and each passing day, highlights that the murmurs of the sea are louder than ever before, reminding us of the precariousness of all things. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
JPM Earnings a Beat But Loan Loss Grows 875% NASDAQ Still Weaker MODERNA Publishes Results See Gold to see some our open option positions.. Today’s market got off to a soft start and after an initial dip it started up. The exception was the NASDAQ. I went home with a few SMH puts and as that ETF fell quickly, I took a nice gain only to see it reverse and move higher with the rest of the markets. The early excitement with the DJIA futures quickly evaporated and we didn’t do much from 11:00 – 1:00 but then started higher and after a new high of day, +450 or so, we sold off from 3:00 to 3:30 before another rally to new high of day and a close +556.79 (2.13%), NASDAQ +97.74 (.94%), S&P 500 +42.30 (1.34%), the Russell +24.69 (1.76%) and the DJ Transports +159.29 (1.71%). Market internals were about as expected for an up day with the NYSE 2:1 and NASDAQ 5:3 after its lower open and rally. Volume was down slightly lower than yesterday. The DJIA showed all 30 names up with the biggest winner UNH +60DP’s (earning tomorrow morning), HD +55, AAPL and CAT +43, MCD +39, and TRV, MCD, and V all adding 30 DP’s. The strongest sectors were energy, industrials, health care and materials. Weaker were consumer discretionary and financials. The U.S. Dollar continued weak and commodities were generally higher. Economic numbers, CPI was released this morning and came in at + .6% for CPI, up from an expected .5%, and Core CPI was + .2% vs .1% expected. This meant that the numbers showed benign consume inflation, although anyone who shops in a grocery store knows that’s not the case! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/PcshhlWfjIc Our Discord forum link is in the video description.. SECTORS: JP Morgan (JPM) reported earnings that were a beat on both earnings and revenues, but after the numbers moved the stock up in early extended trading, the market started looking at the fact that JPM increased its Loan Loss provisions increased from $1.2billion to a monstrous $10.5billion, an 875% increase. The stock had traded as high as $102.50 early, a level that it never achieved in the official market session. The stock finished $98.21 +.56 (.57%). Also reporting were WFC with a loss and was $24.25 -1.16 (4.57%), C also a disappointment finishing $50.15 -2.05 (3.93%), TRV a loss but closed $118.55 +4.31 (3.77%). Delta (DAL) reported their biggest loss in history and revenues back at 1980’s levels. It fell to 26.11 -.71 (2.65%). The January high was $62.48. On the good news side, Moderna (MRNA) reported that their trial of its Covid-19 vaccine produced twice the therapeutic response of patients that had actually recovered from the disease. The stock, a star since the government gave them a grant to help with the development of the vaccine has moved from a low around $18.00 to $87.00 in May had finished the day $75.04 +3.26 (4.54%) ran up to a new high of $89.76 and is currently trading $86.38 + 11.34 or an additional 12%. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.16, BGS +.80, FLO +.32, CPB +.83, CAG +1.13, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +1.01, CALM +.15, JJSF +2.19, SAFM +1.24, HRL +1.03, SJM +2.51, and PBJ $16.30 +.06 (.37%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.75, ABBV +2.89, REGN +27.12, ISRG +15.21, GILD -.18, MYL +.37, TEVA +.13, VRTX +9.01, BHC +.33, INCY +2.46, ICPT +.27, LABU +6.31, and IBB $116.00 +4.75 (3.46%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.17, CGC +.15, CRON +.13, GWPH +6.31, ACB -.18, CURLF -.07, KERN -.16, and MJ $13.34 +.14 (1.79%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.55, GD +.54, TXT +.78, NOC +4.15, BWXT -.42, TDY +7.52, RTX +2.04, and ITA $159.61 +2.56 (1.63%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +.05, KSS +.78, DDS +.75, WMT +2.84, TGT +1.77, TJX +.19, RL +2.27, UAA +.08, LULU +5.85, TPR +.10, CPRI +.09, and XRT $43.96 +.86 (2.00%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +15.77, AMZ -16.68, AAPL +8.39, FB +1.85, NFLX -4.00, NVDA +15.11, TSLA +66.84, BABA -1.19, BIDU -1.54, CMG +21.08, CAT +7.74, BA +7.51, DIS +4.88, and XLK $107.56 +1.72 (1.63%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.37, JPM +1.45, BAC +.23, MS +.88, C -1.23, PNC +.32, AIG +1.28, TRV +7.13, AXP +2.89, V +5.48, and XLF $23.95 +.39 (1.66%). OIL, $40.29 +19. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.00 +1.65 (4.67%). GOLD $1,813.40 -.70. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.28 +.16. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.59 +.20. BITCOIN: closed $9,310 + 40. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.73 + .13 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
I cannot wait to see newbies get pumped and dumped upon during this "muh halvening", it's like watching a new freshman class adapt to the harsh reality of high school when school opens...
I've been in crypto since 2017, not entirely an OG but I did make over 2 million dollars and was heavily invested for a bit over 2 years (it was my full time job after my first 200k). Believe me, I've seen it ALL. The greed, the lies, the bullshit, the scamming, the desperation, the fear, the elation/euphoria. Before that, I played the stock market as well, though not as successfully as crypto. You're not likely to see another 2017 again... that was crypto's mainstream introduction to the world and the FOMO was off the charts and people got burned HARD, but what we do see is the crypto market makers capitalize on every single opportunity to make a quick buck. There is no reason for BTC to pump because of the halvening, that is a completely fabricated narrative to drive up the price. less mined bitcoin doesn't suddenly increase the value of bitcoin. Do people not seem to understand that if BTC was miraculously adopted as the "world currency", then the world would be even MORE unequal and unfair than it is today? Using current USD equivalent value, you would have people who are worth 10 TRILLION dollars for doing nothing but buying and holding early, and other people who wouldn't even own half of what the poorest African does. Does this not strike people as absurd? To really think that bitcoin would "free us" from financial control? This is the reality about money: Money derives it's power first from MILITARY FORCE, and secondly from the perception of economic stability. That's it. Money isn't based off gold, or holding 21 bitcoins, or some other stupid shit like that. It's based off who has the biggest guns, and secondly off markets. I mean let's pretend that governments wouldn't suppress crypto when they feel like releasing their own digital currency, what the fuck would a world look like where bitcoin became the main currency??? Lol. Seriously, think about it. It would be the stupidest thing ever. There'd be nothing "decentralized" about it. it would concentrate more power into the hands of a few than we've EVER seen in history. Anyways, I'm going to guess we pump to 11-12k then massive dump to 8k when corona outbreak round 2 happens. Don't get hurt, kiddos!
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Bitcoin Price & Stock Market Speculation A Brief History of Speculation in Urdu & Hindi
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