This has been bugging me for a while so thank you for endulging my rambling. TL;DR at the end.
I'd like for everyone to just think about what we're trying to do here. Don't forget what the ultimate goal is. Anyone remember? Is it to make a profit? No, that's a secondary goal. The primary goal is to develop widespread adoption of cryptocurrency as an alternative to fiat currency. Anyone remember this lofty goal or did we all forget this while chasing 30% daily price swings. We're trying to complete with USD, GBP, EUR, and CNY, remember? This is EUR vs. USD.
You'll note that this is all data (or click on "All" button on the bottom), going back to 1993 through today. What do you notice? You'll notice an open of $1.22 to €1. After a few months
, it fell about 10%, then rose up 24% over the next two years
only to drop about 40% over seven years
and then almost doubling over eight years
only to drop about a third in the last ten years
to where it is today - almost where we were 25 years ago (approximately). This is BTC vs. USD.
You'll note that this is all data going back to 2011. During the last seven years
it has... oh my God are you kidding me?! This is LTC vs. USD.
Let's not forget what we're talking about. We're talking about currency. For currency to be used, it needs to be relatively stable. Now compare the charts above. Let's say we created a new country called Cryptonia. Which of these would you like to use as currency? EUR? BTC? LTC? My money is on EUR. Why? Because it's relatively stable.
Now let's fast forward a bit and pretend that Cryptonia has adopted Litecoin as its official currency. Our largest trading partner is the US. How would transactions between merchants work in this scenario, taking into account the last few days. I'll use the following prices:
- 1/16: $227
- 1/17: $163
- 1/18: $194
Let's run through a transaction:
- Cryptonian citizen C1 is selling a widget at 1 Litecoin to an American citizen A1
- A1 pays $227 and C1 gets that converted to 1LTC
- C1 is also selling another widget to A2 on the same day for 1LTC and has 2LTC total
- A1 decides that they don't want the item and would like to return it. C1 issues refund of 1LTC. A1 gets $163. A1 loses $64 or 28.2% on the return.
- C1 now has 1LTC
- A2 is decides to do nothing.
- A2 decides to sell the widget to C2 for 1LTC
- C2 says the price is fair since it was 1LTC a few days ago and buys it
- A2 gets $194, a 19% profit from two days ago
- A1 is pissed
- C1 is happy since they made one sale
- A2 is happy since they made a 19% profit
- C2 is happy since they have a widget at a fair price
This works both ways as far as you can do the math in USD vs. LTC to see how this screws over at least one party due to the wild price swings. Note: fiat currency does the same thing with one key difference explained later on.
Don't forget that this is all within 3 days. Now sure, obviously the last few days isn't something that happens every day ... but doesn't it? Look at the examples of EUR:USD. Any sharp spikes or drops have taken months to execute - enough time for relative prices
to adjust. Look at cryptocurrency prices - the swings (from a percentage basis) are wild on a regular basis. In short, cryptocurrency isn't acting like currency. It's acting like an asset and not just an asset but a highly speculative one. The IRS is right to treat it like an asset because if it looks like an asset, and it acts like an asset, then it is an asset.
Where do I believe this should go? I believe cryptocurrency market needs to mature. I believe these drastic price swings need to stop. When will this happen? I believe it'll happen when the cryptocurrency market reaches a happy plateau where the market cap has reached a point where the buyers and sellers mostly eliminate one another and the relatively large price swings - from a percent point of view - are as boring as Mr. Stein
. EUR vs. USD went up 0.03% today. 0.03%. In LTC-speek, that's going up $0.58 for the whole day. Oh and it was a wild ride too. Why it went all the way down to $1.21697 and all the way up to 1.22645. I know, I know - tie me down because I'm out of control.
Is this the only problem? No. Cryptocurrency has another problem and that's the sheer number of types of coins available. How many coins are available? 1,448
. Nearly 1,500 coins all competing with each other for market share. We have Bitcoin at about $200b all the way to something like Digital Money Bits (DMB, an appropriate acronym). What is it? Who cares, it's worth $3,832. Not $3.832 billion or million but literally $3,832 with a volume of $35,509 today and hey, just this June, its market cap reached an all time high of $62,000! You missed the recent run-up though and boy did you miss it. On January 1st, its market cap was worth almost five hundred dollars! Yep, about two Litecoins! But look at it now - it went from $500 market cap to $3,832 in less than three weeks. Clearly this one is shooting to the moon.
This is a problem. Decentralization has an unfortunate side effect of - duh - nobody being in charge. There's no real clearance for these and some people with a little bit of money can literally copy and paste
a whitepaper and have this chart
and have a serious valuation of almost $17b from $140 million in literally 30 days. This doesn't act like a currency either.
This is a problem.
Don't forget, this isn't like the dot-com era. We're not launching IPO's and .com companies that have different ideas. Amazon isn't like Ebay, or Google, or Yahoo, or Facebook or anything else. They all have different ideas for different segments of the population. We are in the cryptocurrency market. The world today has 180 fiat currencies
. Cryptocurrency market is approaching 1,500. We need to trim the fat and the outright forgeries. Market cap isn't enough to weed them out. There needs to be something, a stabilizing force, that should act as a clearinghouse for launch of new cryptocurrencies. The market has failed to destroy shitcoins. Heck, it rewarded them based on lies, paid endorsements, FOMO, and FUD for other coins. This doesn't help the cryptocurrency market. It helps a few people get really wealthy really quickly and you are left holding the bag, so to speak. Should coins only be allowed to be introduced when its network reaches a certain hash rate? Isn't that the only objective point of value we have - number of mathematical calculations and power used in those calculations? You can't fake that.
What's another problem with cryptocurrency? It's what it represents. The governments don't see crypto as a positive force. After all, it directly competes with their own currencies. Can the governments shut this down? No - this is the Internet, after all. But they can kill it in other ways. I don't know how many people here remember but my first brush with Bitcoin was the ransomware viruses which wanted $300 in Bitcoin to unlock files. Bitcoin was seen as something tied to illegal activities. If governments - and let's say the US, South Korea, and China in particular - ban Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in particular then what they'll really do is make transactions illegal. What's the on-ramp and off-ramp to/from crypto? The banks which are already regulated. Now let's say you're in the US, your bank account is tied to your Coinbase account and you have some cryptocurrency. US issues a regulation which states that trading cryptocurrency is now illegal. It issues orders to all US banks to shut down related accounts. The following things will happen: cryptocurrency prices will tank and everyone is going to scramble taking money out which would likely overload the system, causing massive delays.
But let's say you're left holding your crypto and it's been a month. What can you do with it? Not much. Crypto isn't accepted in enough places yet. You can continue holding, hoping the price and ability to extract will come back one day. After all, you can't get your money back. Your bank closed your related account. You can open another one at any new bank but they'll either ban you from connecting your account to Coinbase or they'll confiscate any money coming from Coinbase and charge you with a crime. Now have the governments banned crypto? No - you can use and trade crypto all you want since it can't be traced. But have they effectively? Yes. Ironically, it's the banks that'll save us and I think that's why Ripple blew up. After all, if you have a cryptocurrency that sucks the bank's [censored] and plays along, you can get:
- somewhat decentralized
- tied to various governments, i.e. no ban, little competition
- and use the banks money for lobbying to make sure the governments don't ban it
I think that's why something like Ripple blew up - because it doesn't care much about regular people, it wants to be the speedy highway for bank<->bank transfers.
What's a solution to this problem? More regulation and playing nice with the governments. Crypto isn't going mainstream if you shut out all governments. It needs to be connected. This means working with regulators to make sure that KYC laws
are followed, that people report and pay money on any gains, and that - to a point - there's some supervision and tracing of transactions in a way that if you're robbed, you can get your money back. This will create a new job field
, which - considering our current growth - will create a whole slew of high-paying white-collar jobs. Considering the high-level of transactions, banks would start this, followed by private companies, governments, and law-enforcement agencies. A good way to start this is what CBOE and CME have started to do - legitimize the currency. This is a foot in the door to the real holy grail: FOREX markets. When it's legitimized and not in serious competition with governments, it'll be embraced and its availability - along with instant transfers and low fees - will be widely supported by serious platforms.
Until these problems are fixed, the cryptocurrency market will remain what it is today: a speculative asset and not a currency. During the time it's taken me to write this post, Litecoin has gone up 2.6%. Euro remains at 0.03% gain.
Thanks for reading! TL;DR
- We're supposed to be creating a new type of currency - cryptocurrency - as opposed to chasing profits. To do this, we need to have stable charts and not wild price swings.
- We need to dump most coins on the market and focus on serious ideas that have potential. Market cap has failed to reign in fraud with large, multi-billion dollar shitcoins flooding in. Network hash rate and power usage is a measure we can use to determine objective worth.
- We're competing with governments and until we find a way to work with them, the governments can choke the life out of the entire cryptocurrency markets. This should start with KYC implementations and interoperability with the markets such as FOREX.
Note: New Reddit look may not highlight links. See old look here. A copy is hosted on GitHub for better reading experience. Check it out, contains photo of the month! Also on Medium submitted by
dcrd: Significant optimization
in signature hash calculation, bloom filters support was removed
, 2x faster startup thanks to in-memory full block index
, multipeer work advancing
, stronger protection
against majority hashpower attacks. Additionally, code refactoring and cleanup, code and test infrastructure improvements.
In dcrd and dcrwallet developers have been experimenting
with new modular dependency and versioning schemes using vgo. @orthomind is seeking feedback for his work on reproducible builds
Decrediton: 1.2.1 bugfix release
, work on SPV has started
, chart additions are in progress. Further simplification of the staking process is in the pipeline (slack
Politeia: new command line tool
to interact with Politeia API, general development is ongoing. Help with testing will soon be welcome: this issue
sets out a test plan, join #politeia
to follow progress and participate in testing.
dcrdata: work ongoing on improved design
, adding more charts
and improving Insight API support.
Android: design work advancing
Decred's own DNS seeder (dcrseeder
) was released
. It is written in Go and it properly supports service bit filtering, which will allow SPV nodes to find full nodes that support compact filters.
Ticket splitting service by @matheusd entered
beta and demonstrated
an 11-way split on mainnet. Help with testing is much appreciated, please join #ticket_splitting
to participate in splits, but check this doc
to learn about the risks. Reddit discussion here
Trezor support is expected
to land in their next firmware update
Decred is now supported
by Riemann, a toolbox from James Prestwich to construct transactions for many UTXO-based chains from human-readable strings.
Atomic swap with Ethereum on testnet was demonstrated
at Blockspot Conference LATAM.
Two new faces were added
Dev activity stats for May: 238 active PRs, 195 master commits, 32,831 added and 22,280 deleted lines spread across 8 repositories. Contributions came from 4-10 developers per repository. (chart
Hashrate: rapid growth from ~4,000 TH/s at the beginning of the month to ~15,000 at the end with new all time high of 17,949. Interesting dynamic in hashrate distribution
across mining pools: coinmine.pl share went down from 55% to 25% while F2Pool up from 2% to 44%. [Note: as of June 6, the hashrate continues to rise and has already passed 22,000 TH/s]
Staking: 30-day average ticket price is 91.3 DCR (+0.8), stake participation is 46.9% (+0.8%) with 3.68 million DCR locked (+0.15). Min price was 85.56. On May 11 ticket price surged to 96.99, staying elevated for longer than usual after such a pump. Locked DCR peaked at 47.17%. jet_user on reddit suggested
that the DCR for these tickets likely came from a miner with significant hashrate.
Nodes: there are 226 public listening and 405 normal nodes per dcred.eu
. Version distribution: 45% on v1.2.0 (up from 24% last month), 39% on v1.1.2, 15% on v1.1.0 and 1% running outdaded versions.
Obelisk team posted
an update. Current hashrate estimate of DCR1 is 1200 GH/s at 500 W and may still change. The chips came back at 40% the speed of the simulated results, it is still unknown why. Batch 1 units may get delayed 1-2 weeks past June 30. See discussions on decred
and on siacoin
that 7940 DCR1 units were sold in Batches 1-5, while Lynmar13 shared
his projections of DCR1 profitability (reddit
A new Chinese miner for pre-order was noticed by our Telegram group. Woodpecker WB2 specs 1.5 TH/s at 1200 W, costs 15,000 CNY (~2,340 USD) and the initial 150 units are expected to ship on Aug 15. (pow8.com
Another new miner is iBelink DSM6T: 6 TH/s at 2100 W costing $6,300 (ibelink.co
). Shipping starts from June 5. Some concerns and links were posted in these two threads
A new mining pool is available
. It uses PPLNS model and takes 1% fee.
Another infrastructure addition is tokensmart.io
, a newly audited stake pool with 0.8% fee. There are a total of 14 stake pools
- Upbit added DCKRW and DCUSDT pairs. A user reported that DCR deposits and withdrawals are now available.
- CoinEx announced the launch of DCBTC and DCBCH pairs.
- Bleutrade added DCUSDT pair. Note their reply to our tweet. It was the first exchange to list Decred minutes after launch.
- Brazilian exchange OmniTrade added DCBRL fiat pair following a poll. Worth noting that it is one of the first to integrate Trezor sign-in.
- Bittrex added DCUSDT pair. Withdrawal fee was lowered to 0.01 DCR per user's report.
- Cryptopia enabled DCUSDT pair too.
- There are reports that DCR was added to Abucoins and Tor Exchange but we don't know much about them.
an update that allows one to trade cryptocurrencies, including
@i2Rav from i2trading
is now offering two sided OTC market liquidity on DCUSD in #trading
, payments solution for point of sale and e-commerce, integrated
Decred. (missed in April issue)
CoinPayments, a payment processor supporting Decred, developed
an integration with @Shopify
that allows connected merchants to accept cryptocurrencies in exchange for goods.
An update from VotoLegal:
michae2xl: Voto Legal: CEO Thiago Rondon of Appcívico, has already been contacted by 800 politicians and negotiations have started with four pre-candidates for the presidency (slack, source tweet)
Blockfolio rolled out Signal Beta with Decred in the list
. Users who own or watch a coin will automatically receive updates pushed by project teams. Nice to see this Journal made it to the screenshot!
Placeholder Ventures announced
that Decred is their first
public investment. Their Investment Thesis
is a clear and well researched overview of Decred. Among other great points it noted the less obvious benefit of not doing an ICO:
By choosing not to pre-sell coins to speculators, the financial rewards from Decred’s growth most favor those who work for the network.
Alex Evans, a cryptoeconomics researcher who recently joined Placeholder, posted
his 13-page Decred Network Analysis
March–April survey results (pdf
). It analyzes 166 responses and has lots of interesting data. Just an example:
"I own DECRED because I saw a YouTube video with DECRED Jesus and after seeing it I was sold."
May targeted advertising report released
. Reach @timhebel for full version.
More creative promos by @jackliv3r: Contributing
, Stake Now
, The Splitting
, Forbidden Exchange
, Atomic Swaps
Reminder: Stakey has his own Twitter account
where he tweets about his antics and pours scorn on the holders of expired tickets.
"Autonomy" coin sculpture is available
in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Jake Yocom-Piatt presented "Decentralized Central Banking". Note the mini stakey on one of the photos. (article
, photos: 1 2 album
) Wicked Crypto Meetup
in Warsaw, Poland. (video
, photos: 1 2
) Decred Polska Meetup
in Katowice, Poland. First known Decred Cake. (photos: 1 2
) Austin Hispanic Hackers Meetup
in Austin, USA. Consensus 2018
in New York, USA. See videos in the Media section. Select photos: booth
, moon boots
, giant stakey
. Many other photos and mentions were posted
on Twitter. One tweet summarized Decred pretty well:
One project that stands out at #Consensus2018 is @decredproject. Not annoying. Real tech. Humble team. #BUIDL is strong with them. (@PallerJohn) Token Summit
in New York, USA. @cburniske
from Placeholder talked "Governance and Cryptoeconomics" and spoke highly of Decred. (twitter coverage: 1 2
(from 32 min)) Campus Party
in Bahia, Brazil. João Ferreira aka @girino and Gabriel @Rhama were introducing Decred, talking about governance and teaching to perform atomic swaps. (photos
Decred was introduced
to the delegates from Shanghai's Caohejing Hi-Tech Park, organized by @ybfventures
Second Decred meetup in Hangzhou, China. (photos
) Madison Blockchain
in Madison, USA. "Lots of in-depth questions. The Q&A lasted longer than the presentation!". (photo
) Blockspot Conference Latam
in Sao Paulo, Brazil. (photos: 1
- Decred Australia Meetup in Melbourne, Australia on June 12. Organized by YBF Ventures, all backgrounds are welcome.
- Brazil: meetup in Brasilia on June 13, meetup in Belo Horizonte on June 16 and Campus Party Brasilia on June 27.
- O'Reilly Open Source Convention in Portland, USA on July 18-19. Unlike many "regular" events this one is developer focused. @raedah's team will attend.
- If you are interested in Decred event in San Francisco Bay Area please check this thread.
There is a community initiative by @vj to organize information related to events in a repository
. Jump in #event_planning
channel to contribute.
Decred scored B (top 3) in Weiss Ratings
and A- (top 8) in Darpal Rating
Chinese institute is developing
another rating system for blockchains. First round included
). Upon release
Decred ranked 26. For context, Bitcoin ranked 13.
- Team Spotlight: Decred, Pedal Steel Guitar, and Thoughts on Bitcoin From an Exodus Developer (medium.com, missed in April issue)
- Decred: A Cryptocurrency That Combines PoW, PoS (investopedia.com, translated to Spanish and Russian)
- Decred Price Booms on Consensus 2018 Publicity (cryptovest.com)
- Decred Leads By Example With Fair Governance (cryptodaily.co.uk)
- Graph showing your ticket's chance to vote on any given day (twitter)
- Decred: More Steps to Fame, as Price Shoots Above $110 (cryptovest.com)
- Sole Survivor: Decred Unaffected in Latest Market Downturn (cryptovest.com)
- Placeholder VC Puts Money on Decred to Rival Bitcoin (btcmanager.com)
- Decred Is The Most Undervalued Cryptocurrency With A 15% Dividend-Like Yield, Possibly The Next Bitcoin (seekingalpha.com)
- Decred Coin News: What makes Decred coin price to go over $100? (theoofy.com)
- Asian Cryptocurrency Trading Update: Only Decred Showing a Gain (newsbtc.com)
- Why Decred? Let the community tell you! by Noah Pierau (medium.com)
- A post by @DecredKing arguing being first in crypto is not enough (medium.com)
- Why Decred is the new Bitcoin (globalcoinreport.com)
- The Long-Term Bullish Case for Decred by Ben Davidow (medium.com)
- Hardware Companies Are Launching Dedicated ASIC Miners for Decred (btcmanager.com)
- Iterative Capital partner Chris Dannen and journalist Ben Schiller speak with Marco and Jonathan from Decred at Consensus 2018 (soundcloud)
- Decred Review: What is DCR, the Decred Community & Possible Challenges by BitBoy Crypto (youtube)
- Decred Founder: Bitcoin Paved Way, Phase 2 Will Shock You! (Marco Peereboom) by Pure Blockchain Wealth (youtube)
- Decred & Blocknet: Revolutionary governance for every community feat. JZ at Consensus 2018 (youtube)
- Decred coin - Will it be better than Bitcoin? by Bitassist (youtube)
Community stats: Twitter 39,118 (+742), Reddit 8,167 (+277), Slack 5,658 (+160). Difference is between May 5 and May 31.
Reddit highlights: transparent up/down voting
on Politeia, combining
LN and atomic swaps, minimum viable superorganism
, the controversial debate
on Decred contractor model (people wondered
about true motives behind the thread), tx size and fees discussion
, hard moderation case
of ASICs on price, another "Why Decred?" thread
with another excellent pitch by solar, fee analysis
showing how ticket price algorithm change was controversial with ~100x cut in miner profits, impact
of ticket splitting on ticket price, recommendations
on promoting Decred, security against double spends
and custom voting policies.
@R3VoLuT1OneR posted a preview of a proposal
from his company for Decred to offer scholarships for students. dcrtrader
gained a couple of new moderators, weekly automatic threads were reconfigured to monthly and empty threads were removed. Currently most trading talk happens on #trading and some leaks to decred
. A separate trading sub offers some advantages: unlimited trading talk, broad range of allowed topics, free speech and transparent moderation, in addition to standard reddit threaded discussion, permanent history and search.
Forum: potential social attacks
Slack: the #governance
channel created last month has seen many intelligent conversations on topics including: finite attention of decision makers, why stakeholders can
make good decisions (opposed to a common narrative than only developers are capable of making good decisions), proposal funding and contractor pre-qualification, Cardano and Dash treasuries, quadratic voting, equality of outcome vs equality of opportunity, and much more.
One particularly important issue being discussed is the growing number of posts arguing that on-chain governance and coin voting is bad. Just a few examples from Twitter: Decred is solving an imagined problem
by @jm_buirski), we convince
ourselves that we need governance and ticket price algo vote was not controversial, on-chain governance hurts
node operators and it is too early
for it, it robs
node operators of their role, crypto risks being captured
by the wealthy, it is a huge threat
to the whole public blockchain space, coin holders should not
own the blockchain.
Some responses were posted here
on Twitter, as well as this article
by Noah Pierau.
The month of May has seen Decred earn some much deserved attention in the markets. DCR started the month around 0.009 BTC and finished around 0.0125 with interim high of 0.0165 on Bittrex. In USD terms it started around $81 and finished around $92, temporarily rising to $118. During a period in which most altcoins suffered, Decred has performed well; rising from rank #45 to #30 on Coinmarketcap.
The addition of a much awaited KRW pair on Upbit saw the price briefly double on some exchanges. This pair opens up direct DCR to fiat trading in one of the largest cryptocurrency markets in the world.
An update from @i2Rav:
We have begun trading DCR in large volume daily. The interest around DCR has really started to grow in terms of OTC quote requests. More and more customers are asking about trading it.
Like in previous month, Decred scores high by "% down from ATH" indicator being #2 on onchainfx
as of June 6.
David Vorick (@taek) published
lots of insights into the world of ASIC manufacturing (reddit
). Bitmain replied
an ASIC for Equihash (archived
), an algorithm thought
to be somewhat ASIC-resistant 2 years ago. Three pure PoW coins
this month, one attempting to be ASIC resistant. This shows the importance of Decred's PoS layer that exerts control over miners and allows Decred to welcome ASIC miners for more PoW security without sacrificing sovereignty to them.
Upbit was raided
over suspected fraud and put under investigation. Following news reported
no illicit activity was found and suggested
and raid was premature and damaged trust in local exchanges.
Circle, the new owner of Poloniex, announced
a USD-backed stablecoin and Bitmain partnership. The plan is to make USDC available as a primary market on Poloniex. More details in the FAQ
lower trading fees.
to offer USD trading pairs.
@sumiflow made good progress on correcting Decred market cap on several sites:
speaking of market cap, I got it corrected on coingecko, cryptocompare, and worldcoinindex onchainfx, livecoinwatch, and cryptoindex.co said they would update it about a month ago but haven't yet I messaged coinlib.io today but haven't got a response yet coinmarketcap refused to correct it until they can verify certain funds have moved from dev wallets which is most likely forever unknowable (slack)
About This Issue
Some source links point to Slack messages. Although Slack hides history older than ~5 days, you can read individual messages if you paste the message link into chat with yourself. Digging the full conversation is hard but possible. The history of all channels bridged to Matrix is saved in Matrix. Therefore it is possible to dig history in Matrix if you know the timestamp of the first message. Slack links encode the timestamp: https://decred.slack.com/archives/C5H9Z63AA/p1525528370000062 => 1525528370 => 2018-05-05 13:52:50.
Most information from third parties is relayed directly from source after a minimal sanity check. The authors of Decred Journal have no ability to verify all claims. Please beware of scams and do your own research.
Your feedback is precious. You can post on GitHub
, comment on Reddit or message us in #writers_room
Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee, Richard-Red, snr01 and solar.
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